blippy's blog 2025

Blog for 2025

May

April

$ LVMH €485-9.6% Revs -3% organic basis.

$ BNZL 2233p-27% Shares lowest level in 4 yrs. Q1 Amber/Red

$ PETS Holds ~25% of mkt. Great, but raises questions of growth

GDP (annual) of EU: $18.5tn. US: $27.7tn.

$ GRG 1687p Buy triggered for support level 23b22.30

$ CTY 406p Buy triggered at support level 23b22.29

$ FOUR 3440p-9.4% No news except Norges bank reduced holdings from 3.98% to 2.99%. FTSE down 1.6% Trump tarrifs come into effect..

March

$ DGE 2000p down a half since Dec 2021, and below the price in Apr 2013. Looks like a buying opportunity. 23b22.28

$ BVXP 2445p-11.1% Interims. Rev + 1%. PBT -4%.

$ PETS 209p-11.5% Pre-close statement

ALEXANDER TYTLER: Democracies can only exist as a temporary form of governance and will be so up until the point the people realize they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. After which only the candidate that promises the most will win and this will inevitably lead to collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.

ALEKSANDR SOLZHENITSYN: Human beings are born with different capabilities. If they are free, they are not equal. And if they are equal, they are not free.

$ ABDN Owns Interactive Investor.

RUSSELL NAPIER: All monetary systems fail, it's just a question of how they fail.

$ NIKE $65.74 Michael Taylor: "don't buy"

$ VTY 603p-7% FY. 35% slump in 2024 profit on Wednesday, after a year of delayed partner agreements, abandoned projects, cost overruns and slower open-market completions.

$ TSLA Recalls 46,000 cybertrucks

$ HVO 15.3p Sell. CEO is too promotional. Revenue per share has actually decreased over the last 10 years. I now consider my original purchase at 20.6p a mistake.

$ GAMA 1252p Buy. Results out, SP up 3.8% on results. Q 91, ROCE 23%, IC 100. Fwd PE 13.1.

$ FEVR 791p. SSON sold, citing saturation in UK, capped profitability in US and high valuation

$ GAMA 1196p buy triggered support level of 1200p breached. 19c22.27

PETER LYNCH: Look for small companies that are profitable and have proven that their concept can be replicated.

$ OCI Cancels dividends in order to fund buybacks

Market leaders tend to have better pricing power than the number two, three or four.

$ CVSG There is a structural undersupply of vets in UK

Spotted on Youtube: "Letting Trump negotiate a peace deal anywhere is like allowing a mother-in-law who hates you to negotiate a divorce. JUST STOP with the magical thinking."

$ MAB1 YU. HAT ZTF 🟩

$ CCC Stocko user is a customer who says their tech service is top notch.

Harry Nimmo states that when the FT250 has a yield above 3.5%, it's a good buy point. Currently 3.7% (TTM)

$ BNZL 2898p Evenlode est FCY '25 for '26 of 7.0%. Seems pretty good

$ GMS 17.5p, IGG 946p, OSB 422p 🟩

$ HOC 219p+13.9% Hoschild Mining. In gold and silver. Prelims. Restores dividends. Looks like a buy to me.

$ HILS 1880p+8.4% FY. Raises long-term operating margin to 18% from 15%. Revenues +3%, operating profit +11%, PBT + 12%. "Structural growth drivers"

$ FOUR 4265p-11% Buy triggered ∵ < 4500p 19c22.25. FY. Market share gains. Lowest level since 22/12 Rev at order intake level for 2025 first two months slightly down vs 2024 🟨🟩

$ VOW €109 Looks a good buy. Share momentum good YTD. PE 4.5 and possible defence tie-up

$ SQZ Serica Energy. Proposed takeover by EnQuest at 130p

February

US DEFENCE SPENDING. Trump intends to reduce it by 8%pa for the next 5 years.

GRAHAM NEARY'S portfolio, with percentages: VLE 33, BRK 27, IGG 13, NXT 9, RMV 5, BRBY 5, BATS 4, EVOK 2, IPF 2, IPX 1. "I found this portfolio somewhat frustrating for a while, as my largest holding made no progress in share price terms for four years (roughly from 2020 to 2024)"

$ BGUK

• AUTO looking into finance commissions rather than making loans
• HWDN uses AI in its depots for staff queries
• KNOS uses AI for MoT. Mecahnics can ask it questions

$ FRAS 621p Ann 10y partnership with GMG in Gult region and Egypt

$ W7L 358p-8.2% No news. Fwd PE 14.7. Looks good given its growth.

ROB ARNOTT: As at 2017, no top 10 tech stock of 1999 had beaten the market.

NICK TRAIN: Lindsell Train UK Equity +19.4% over 5 yrs. ASX +37.9%. "Generational" opportunity to buy UK growth firms. Sold nearly all international positions. Bought CKN and ITRK.

$ RNO 41p Looks good value with EV/EBITDA of 3.9, PFCF 4, IC 5.3. EPS nearly doubled over 10 yrs. Putative buy. Questions about pension liabilities and overly-generous director incentives.

$ AHT 4836p Buy triggered at 4800p (a support level). M is 17, so I'm going to reset the trigger for M>20.

$ BME 266p-8.5% TU Profit warning. M 13 So on my watchlist

DREMAN p250 Table 11-2 demonstrates that there is a persistence of company quality over time but that stock price movements (p249, fig 11-1) of the low-quality cheap group is better.

DREMAN p221 Look beyond obvious similarities between a current investment situation and that appears equivalent in the past. Consider other important factors that may result in a markedly different outcome.

STOCKOPEDIA Personally I can't bring myself to invest in banks. I don't mind investing in things I don't understand but I don't want to invest in things their managements don't understand. -- timarr

MOTLEY FOOL "Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust (LSE: USA) will easily outperform the UK’s mid-cap index over the next few years." 265p FT250: 20639

$ FXPO 81.1p. Might be nationalised

$ WG. 24p John Wood Group. Net debt/(2025) profit > 10X. Analysts revised 2024 forecasts from positive to negatve. PE 2.6, PBV 0.08. I predict bankruptcy.

$ RNWH Buy @697p. 695p top-up point triggered.

BIGGEST 10 companies in the world. End of the 80's: Japanese companies. End of the 90's: US tech. End of the 00's: BRICs. Today it's the Mag7.

$ MIDW 264p buy ∵ M>20 triggered. PFCF 5.9, IC=7, but it issues a lot of shares. 19c25

PORTFOLIO BLOG writes:

• low profit margins can be predictive of earnings growth
• gross profits to total assets can be more meaningful than ROA
• receivables varying greating from Q to Q usually spell trouble
• a company whole sales are turning around can be a much better investment than a company wholes sales are growing steadily

$ BA. 1227p USA: "Defense stocks drop after Trump says Pentagon spending could be halved."

$ FXPO 112p sale as I doubled my money from buy back in Oct. Proceeds added to "speculation pool" 19c25

$ RSW 3240p-9.5% Stocko: "Moaty business but with little signs of growth. Looks to be living on past glories. Significantly overvalued. Amber/red"

$ BATS 3151-7.2% Renenue -5.2% due to sales of businesses in Russia and Belarus and FX headwinds. Graham holds amber/green

$ FXPO 97.4p + 7.3%. Possible Russian peace deal. Majority shareholder, Zhevago, has had his assets frozen today… I suspect the US have told them to control the corruption, and the US will invest heavily in Ukraine to rebuild it and invest in its resources! Could this play out with Z forced to sell 49% to us banks?

MAKEFILE has a feature called .EXTRA_PREREQS

$ AHT Ashtead 5104p intends to obtain a US listing

GERVAIS WILLIAMS more bullish now than in the last 30 years.

$ WIZZ 1545p M>19 buy triggered. PFCF 5.4. Yld 0%. IC 1.3 (low!) 19c21.16

$ MPE 1080p Mkt for palm oil grew ~4%pa since 1990

$ VTU 52.7p-7.5% Expects FY25 profit below expectations. I had sold in 24/9 at ~62p. Seems I made a sensible call. Announcement was midday.

$ CPG 2734p-2% 25Q1 TS. Organic revenue +9% Graham amber/red. Thinks P/E 25 is too high.

$ OCI 480p Directors buys £215k worth of shares

$ FXPO 80p-22.8% Accusations of an illegal sale of waste products sent to court. Graham red; risk of wipeout.

$ DGE 2346p-3% Trump introduces 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. ~46% of US sales are imported from there. Graham amber/green

$ ULTP 85.0-15.8% 2025H1 Revenues down 6%. EV/EBITDA 5.7. Graham amber/green

DREMEN p17 As of Sep 1982 the market had gone nowhere in 17 years, and, adjusted for inflation, the Dow was almost back to its prices of the depressed thrities.

January

$ RNWH 710p-22% TU Trading expected to be below mkt expectations, but ahead of prior year. Order book is at record level.

$ TUNE 196p-7% TU H2 weighted. Stock amber

$ HVO 19.4p Rathbones ups stake from 5.0% to 12.9%

$ FEVR 792p Triggered M>20. PE 24.3

$ SRP 156p Triggered M>20. Fwd PE 9.9

MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION Σ|xᵢ| is a better measure of deviation than root mean square.

$ FEVR 799p+21% Fevertree shares "transformational" deal with Molson Coors

$ EVPL 265p Changed epic from TM17 (Team 17) to Everplay. On 23/11 shares were 180p-43% when CEO, chair and 2 NEDs left. Quite a turnarond!

SEARCH ENGINES BitChute, Freespoke, Gibitu, Oysee, Rumble, Yandex

OPERATING SYSTEM in 1,000 lines. Implements basic context switching, paging, user mode, a command-line shell, a disk device driver, and file read/write operations in C.