Counterfactual MCMVIII: Tunguska Tsundere

    [publius] astronomers in the 1930s, working on the assumption that
              the Tunguska Event of 1908 was the impact of a cometary
              body, attempted to calculate its orbit to check whether it
              had been observed in the past
    [publius] they concluded that only a few hours' difference would
              have led the body to impact almost in the centre of the
              city of st petersburg
    [thrig] slagsgrad
    [publius] i have often wondered about the geopolitical implications
              of having one of the capitols of the major world empires
              TOTALLY OBLITERATED by a ~40 megaton blast
    [publius] you have to wonder -- would it have been interpreted as
              the opening shot of an extraterrestrial invasion?
              would the remaining great powers have felt the need to
              band together for mutual defense? how long until they
              fell to squabbling over dividing the remainds of the
              russian empire?

My take is that the powers do not band together, and quickly set about dividing up the spoils. In particular a Japan slighted at the peace treaty of 1905 would see fit to deploy troops to "ensure stability" and otherwise expand into the western portions of the region. How far this could go would be limited by Siberia being a pretty big place and most lacking in such things as infrastructure and increasing resistance from Russian remnants the deeper they go. Publius has them "take Vladivostok and everything west to Baikal".

Europe is more complicated. Expansionist Germany following the ideal gas law expands, though publius posited a plausible "Polish independence movement steals a march on the kaiser, re-creates the old Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth (including Ukraine) before anybody can say anything" scenario. There may be a "Christian charity" scenario where European powers try to prop up a new ruling family or parliamentary something from the survivors. This may in turn lead to squabbles between the various groups involved (Krauts, Poles, Other?), and who knows how that sorts itself out. World War I might start a few years early should any minor disagreements get out of hand?

Most likely China and possibly the Ottomans, being empires "on the ropes", sit things out. I am less certain about the soft, southern belly of Russia. Maybe the Ottomans or someone sees fit to complicate matters down there. The Germans very well may expand southerly, skirting the Ottoman holdings, especially if there is a Polish or some other power to the north. The British would most likely "hold the line" in India, at least initially, as they would want a buffer between their holdings and whatever sorts itself out of the space formerly known as Russia. The Americans would desire favorable trading terms but are too far away to make any land grabs. Given the penchant of Americans to tear up trade deals, it would be prudent to make only the most careful of deals with such devils.

    [stug]    interesting read thrig
    [stug]    i do like the ideal gas law germany line
    [thrig]   the kaiser farts in your direction!