The Jays Aren't Great, But It Could Be A Lot, Lot Worse

Stop me if you've heard this before: the Toronto Blue Jays target a generational, transformational player in free agency. After some time, and, we're told, consideration, that player does not pick the Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile, free agency has been progressing. The team scrambles to find a player who can replicate some of what they're looking for. They start the season slow. It's early, we're told. The season progresses. The team never starts winning.

This is how it went last year, when, after trying to land Shohei Ohtani (the most singular player since Babe Ruth, and maybe more so), they settled for some players via free agency and trades: Brendon Little, Kevin Kiermaier, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Daniel Vogelbach, and a number of lesser players. To some extent, these worked out: Little was an effective reliever, Kiermaier provided his usual incredible defense (though his hitting declined rapidly), and Kiner-Falefa was maybe the biggest surprise, providing a couple WAR by mid-season before being dealt for an outfielding prospect.

But none of these were Shohei Ohtani, starting pitcher and slugging DH. The Jays continued their decline at the plate, struggling to hit home runs, struggling to hit with runners in scoring position. Shortstop Bo Bichette was ineffective, and hurt, impossible to tell how much these were intertwined. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got off to a terrible start and a scorching finish, having an effective season overall. But the team couldn't score, and relied on its pitching to be perfect and its defense to be outstanding. I guess the best thing I could say is that hte defense _was_ outstanding, the team winning the team gold glove award. But while the starting pitching was good, the bullpen was not. The team slumped to a 74-88 record, and their first losing season since 2019.

This last offseason, trying to make a major splash to address the hitting problems, they made a play for Juan Soto, a generational player as well (though, if we're being honest, not in the same class as Ohtani, who's singular). And like last offseason, they scrambled after to improve the team in other ways after he decided to sign elsewhere. Anthony Santander was their slugger pickup. And so far this year, he's been awful, posting -0.7 WAR and an OPS+ of 68. This season, the hitting's been the problem, up and down the lineup, even more so than last season. They're currently 25th in terms of runs scored. Their pitching's actually improved, and most games are, at least on paper, close. But all this means is they're losing a lot of close games. A few games ago they broke .500. They're a couple games under right now. Maybe that's the fate of this team, to be middling.

That said, it could certainly be worse. Last year's Chicago White Sox set the record for the most losses in the modern era, with 121. That was supposed to be a singular thing, a high watermark for failure, the sort of record the '62 Mets couldn't even touch. But this season, the Colorado Rockies are, somehow, worse. With a third of the season done, they sit at 9-46. They're 1-9 in their last 10. They're on pace for 135 losses, maybe more.

Baseball has had a competitiveness problem for some time. As a Blue Jays fan, I'd love to argue that the team never really tried during their 20+ year playoff drought. But that's not really true. They tried to field competitive teams, and often succeeded, but were hamstrung because they play in the same division as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, who were always better, and always signed the best players. The Dodgers before the Dodgers got good. There was one year the Jays had 87 wins, great pitching, a lights-out closer in B.J. Ryan. That would've been enough in the NL, but they were third in their division, and missed the playoffs. (Even more galling: the World Series winner that year was the Cardinals, who got in with 84 wins).

No, there are levels of hell. There are flawed teams, put together with intention, like the Jays then, and now. But there are teams that don't really try to put together a good team because, well, if you keep payroll low, the owners can make a lot of money. Pittsburgh is notorious for this. The White Sox, I have no clue, but I remember a few years ago it seemed like they were ascendant. And the Rockies...well, they've never been great, and they play in the same division as the Dodgers and newly-good Padres. Rest in peace.

The end result, as Marc Normandin points out in his blog post, is a historic number of both very good and very bad teams. There are currently four teams on pace for 100+ loss seasons, the gold standard for dogshit (the Rockies, Orioles, White Sox, Pirates). The Marlins might make it too.

There are probably a lot of reasons for this - bad scouting, bad player development, not being able to sign Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto and then settling for scraps. In baseball, the little things matter. If every player on your team plays slightly better, you can get significantly better results. And right now it seems like competitiveness is out of whack. There will always be bad teams, but this many? This bad?

Hard to say whether it's ownership or operations, or just swinging for a grand slam and spinning into the dirt. .500 baseball is frustrating. Worse than that is wretched. Why spend money on a ticket when the product isn't entertaining? Why waste your time when it's likely to be a loss? In this context I'm thankful to cheer for a team that's trying and not succeeding, and that doesn't appear to be actively sabotaged from above. The Jays aren't great, and that sucks. But it's easy to identify discrete flaws. Rather than "everything", there are things that are fixable, that if they were addressed, could result in real improvements for the team. I'm glad I'm watching that instead of, you know, the White Sox and Rockies. It must be miserable for their players. It's certainly miserable for their fans.