UPS2976 and the Future of the MD-11
2025-11-06
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Two days ago, UPS Airlines flight 2976 crashed shortly after it took off from the UPS hub at Louisville Muhammed Ali International Airport. The aircraft, a McDonnell Douglas MD-11F registered N259UP, was bound for Honolulu when it lost lift after only reaching an altitude of 175 feet. UPS2976 was fully loaded with fuel when it hit the ground, and it crashed into a petroleum recycling center, which combined to create an enormous fireball. All 3 crew members aboard the aircraft were killed, as were at least 9 people on the ground. Many are still being treated, and some people are still missing in the aftermath.
The accident was recorded on several security cameras, as well as on at least one bystander's phone. At the time of writing, it's been established that the number 1 engine detached from the left wing of the aircraft for an unknown reason. As UPS2976 lifted off the runway, fire was seen billowing from the wing, and it quickly fell back to the ground.
On the face of it, this sequence of events bears a disturbing resemblance to American Airlines flight 191. On 1979-05-25, flight 191, a McDonnell Douglas DC-10-10, lost its left engine during takeoff due to an unauthorized "shortcut" maintenance procedure that damaged the engine pylon. Like UPS2976, AA191 managed to take off briefly before rolling to the left, hitting the ground, and exploding. 273 people were killed in that accident.
The MD-11 is derived from the DC-10. It features a longer fuselage and several small aerodynamic improvements such as winglets, but overall is extremely similar to its predecessor. In the 1970s and '80s, the DC-10 was involved in several high-profile accidents that gave it a reputation of being an unsafe aircraft. It had became an unpopular aircraft among passengers by the 1990s, and almost all airlines phased them out in the 2000s. Only a handful remain in service in specialized roles.
The MD-11 has had a better safety record overall, but it's known to have some difficult handling characteristics. Most notably, the aircraft has a tendency to bounce on landing, which can lead to porpoising and loss of control if not carefully checked. This was the cause of two hull-loss accidents in 2009 and 2010, one of which was fatal. Since it is based on an older airframe, the MD-11's flight envelope has smaller safety margins than other aircraft of its time, such as the Boeing 777 or the Airbus A330. After Boeing acquired McDonnell Douglas in 1997, development of an improved variant halted to avoid internal competition with Boeing's existing models, so no new MD-11s have been produced or upgraded since 2000.
Only three carriers currently operate the MD-11: UPS Airlines, FedEx Express, and Western Global Airlines, all of which are cargo operators. Even before the crash of UPS2976, UPS and and FedEx had already stated their intentions to retire their MD-11 fleets by 2032. I suspect that this accident will accelerate their plans due to safety concerns. Acquiring new aircraft is difficult at the moment due to extremely high global demand, but there are several airframes each company could lease for short periods of time while searching for permanent replacements.
I'm horrified at the human loss in the crash of UPS2976, and I'm further saddened that this fate befell an MD-11. In terms of planespotting, some of my favorite aircraft are trijets, and the MD-11 is the only one I have a realistic chance of seeing anymore. I feel that chance will rapidly disappear in the wake of this accident. And to be honest, I can't say the retirement of the type will be without justification.
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[Last updated: 2025-11-06]