I've been facinated by technological collapses recently. My current favourite example is Bronze Age collapse.

There are many theories about why, but I like this one:

General systems collapse theory, pioneered by Joseph Tainter, proposes that societal collapse results from an increase in social complexity beyond a sustainable level, leading people to revert to simpler ways of life.

Civilization usually defined trough social and technological complexities. They stack upon each other increasing risks. Supply chain issues (bronze & tools production), climate changes, mass migrations, new tech spread, social failures can combine increasing chances of collapse.

It is facinating. In theory.

Sep 09 · 3 months ago · 👍 pista

2 Comments ↓

Supply chain optimisation and extreme specialization are the final straw. It works as long as everything is perfect, but systems become extremely fragile.

The other thing to look at is money. Generally there is some tinkering and debasement by those in power. Unholy alliances are made with the wealthy, to provide funding, undermining the core image. In later examples of empires, something like the Royal Bank or a Central Bank is given power to manufacture money -- usually paper, and 'lend' it to the ruling faction... Eventually the empire chokes on its own bad currency.

I think financial 'accidents' are what brings empires to their knees. I always look at history through financial lens.

Financial system, is definitelly one of critical systems that keeps increasing its complexity and fragility. From simple barter, to medium of exchange (gold / silver), to printed then digital currency. Now whole financial institutions deal with financial tools of ever increasing complexity, boosted by index funds and super funds that "follow trends" in reality amplifying smallest market turbulence. There are even hedge funds and other actors who are directly interested in gambling against portions of economy and sometimes even whole economy.

If we take into account auto-trading, AI forecasting, economic collapse and technological collapse probabilities are closely linked.